By Vivekananda Pattanayak in Bhubaneswar, April 23, 2026: On 7 April after five weeks into an aggressive, destructive unprovoked war against Iran, a sovereign country, a founder member of the United Nations, an international organization established after the end of the Second World War in which Iran had a neutral status, killing sixty one school children on the first day, sufficient ground for war crime proceeding, Trump threatened imperiously that “a whole civilization will die tonight” keeping the world in great suspense.

A ceasefire and an attempt to bring two belligerents on a negotiating table kindled some ray of hope that a civilization would escape death for a while. Blockade over a blockade however hilarious it may sound has only produced a deadlock. The end result is no restoration of international navigation through the strait of Hormuz The sequel to this impasse is the global economy remains distressed with spirallingof oil and gas prices, inflation taking its toll, global trade gets constrained with far reaching consequence for now and future affecting supply of fertilizers with an ominous tidings of El Nino.

Nobody familiar with history of international conflicts expected an agreement in the first round. Experience of Vietnam war and recent war in Afghanistan would show peace would take a long time to mature usually aftera series of ceasefires and peace talks. No wonder Kissinger famously stated that it is easy to start awar, but it is difficult to end. Ukraine and Gaza are examples.

The current war has been started at the initiative of Israel. The powerful Jewish lobby in USA has been behind this conflict as always has been since 1948 in support of the Jewish state. Secondly Hezbollah, a Shite outfit in Lebanon is a state within a state. Lebanon is multireligious country with each religious group having its constitutional status and influence. War included attack on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah. It was simply ridiculous when Vance said that ceasefire did not include Lebanon.

Delusion that Iran has been pulverized to stone age is another complicating factor.During war losses are not truthfully disclosed. The Western media have not access to losses in Isreal.In real sense belligerents are US, Israel on one side and Iran and Hezbollah on the other side. On the peace table negotiating parties are US and Iran.It is assumed that US represents Israel and Iran represents Hezbollah.Any negotiation between US and Lebanon is superfluous.

World knows that there is gargantuan trust deficit between the parties. After the summary repudiation of deal by Trump the Obama initiated agreement, attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, and finally full-scale attack on Iran during negotiation have created an atmosphere of total distrust among the Iranian leadership howevermuch it may have been weakened after series of assassinations. The Iranians distrust the American since the treatment meted out to Mossadegh in the fifties of last century. The Islamic Revolution of 1979 was the culmination of the anger against American supported Shah. Of course, the Iranian society is divided like most of the societies with diversities world over.

The power elite in US is also unable to forget the period of 444 days of seizure of the US Embassy in 1979 with embassy staff taken as hostages, and humiliating experience the US commandos faced with loss of helicopters and loss of lives when they attempted an Entebbe type rescue operation to free the hostages. At the same time there is rising crescendo of no-war voice.

Reality is Iran is down but not out. Iran’s beleaguered leadership knows well that Hormuz is the leverage. US blockade of course reduces the bargaining strength.Each is waitingfor the other to blink. Trump’s extension of ceasefire is certainly a wise and sensible decision.Midterm election is a compelling factor. Israel has similar compulsion. Russia and China have sympathies for Iran which bolster their morale. In addition the Global South is behind their sovereignty.

In this imbroglio mediation is the only option although the ideal approach would have been an international body like UN playing its part, not in New York but in Geneva in Switzerland. The Secretary General would have been the ideal choice but both Trump and Netanyahu have closed that option, first Trump has contempt for UN as a body and Netanyahu has declared the present Secretary General, Antonio Guterres as persona non-grata.

As regards Hormuz who ever mediates should bring an interim understanding between Iran and US that ships which have clearance of both should pass to give some relief to the world economy. Continuance of ceasefire is a must for saving of human lives.