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By Bizodisha Bureau, Bhubaneswar, Junde 6, 2021: Barely more than a fortnight after the very severe cyclonic storm Yaas battered the Odisha coasts on May 26, the natural disaster-prone state is expected to witness a depression crossing its coast on June 13.

The low-pressure area will develop into a depression on June 12 with the central pressure of the system estimated at around 988 millibars. Another low pressure likely to form near the Odisha coast between June 27-July4.

This will not be the end of the monsoon saga this year. The long-range forecasts by reputed models predict another possible monsoon low during the week of June 27 – July 4. And this time the low pressure may cross between south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast, bringing heavy rains for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.

As per model forecasts, a low-pressure system is predicted to form over the North Bay of Bengal close to the Odisha coast on June 11. The low-pressure area will develop into a depression on June 12. The central pressure of the system is predicted to remain at around 988 millibars. The model forecasts discount the possibility of the system developing into a deep depression.

There seems to a near unanimity between all the models over the place of crossover by this year’s first monsoon depression. The model forecasts by IMD, CGEPS (MME), US-GFS, ECMWF indicate the depression to be crossing the Odisha coast between Puri and Jagatsinghpur. The prediction is the depression will veer towards the Odisha coast and cross the State’s coast at around Puri during the early morning hours on June 13 (Sunday).

A look at the wind predictions by various weather models shows the districts over which the core area of depression will pass see a wind speed of mere 10kmph. However, the districts that fall to the outside of the core zone of depression are predicted to record a wind speed of 28 -37kmph in the morning hours on June 13, when the system will cross the Odisha coast.

The districts in the Core Zone of depression are Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Khurda and Cuttack while the south coastal districts Ganjam, southern districts like Gajapati, Raygada, central and western Odisha districts will be in the non-core zone:.

The districts falling to the south of the depression will be recording heavy rainfall on June 13. Districts like Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Khordha, Cuttack, Malakngiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Balangir, Nuapada, Kandhamal and Nayagarh will be witnessing heavy rainfall. These districts may record an accumulated rainfall of around 90-100 mm in 24 hours.

Very heavy rainfall is predicted at some places in the districts of Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Boudh, Bolangir and Nuapada on June 13.
The rainfall is predicted to extend up to districts like Sonepur, Sambalpur and Bargarh on the next Sunday. Districts like Sundargarh, Jharsuguda, parts of Sambalpur and Deogarh will recod accumulated rainfall of 30-40mm in 24 hours. The rest of the districts in the state will record a light monsoon drizzle.

As per the model outlook, Odisha will be witnessing heavy rains, especially in the districts adjoining Chhattisgarh like Nuapada, Balangir and Bargarh, even till noon on June 14.

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