By Nageshwar Patnaik in Bhubaneswar, April 5, 2017 : Odisha chief minister and the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo Naveen Patnaik faces toughest challenge of his political career spanning over two decades with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) all out to humble him by hook or crook.

In his political journey, Naveen did face a host of crises in the past. But now is confronted he faces real predicament in the aftermath of overwhelming victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP in the Uttar Pradesh and Uttarkhand legislative assembly elections 2017. Even at home, Naveen felt the heat with a clear dent on his popularity in the panchayat polls with a clear 4% negative swing in vote share of his party.

One message that rings out loud and clear is that the voters of Odisha no longer believe there is no alternative (TINA) to his BJD. Naveen entered into the stae’s political scene at a time when the Congress party, discredited by decades of misrule, had turned rudderless. The lack of an effective opposition meant Naveen had everything going for him to consolidate his power, both within and outside the party.

Also, a good part of Naveen’s tenure overlapped with India’s economic rise and a mining boom in Odisha, which meant more money – by way of both higher central transfers and the state’s own revenues — for vote-winning welfare programmes such as offering rice to the poor for Rs 2 per kg (later reduced to Re 1/kg) and building rural roads. In cities, the middle class was happy as the service sector was on an upswing. Information technology companies such as Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services set up large operations in the state’s capital, Bhubaneswar, creating lucrative jobs for the local educated youth – many of them have since risen through the ranks to take up US and Europe-based assignments for their employers. The expansion of the IT sector coupled with dodgy money from mining also fuelled a realty boom that hugely benefited people living in the urbanizing landscape around the state’s capital and other cities.

All of these kept reinforcing the image of Naveen Patnaik as a leader who stood for development and progress, even though his populist schemes came at the expense of longer-term welfare of the people. Critical sectors such as education and healthcare were neglected, as was investment in agriculture that provides livelihood to more than three-quarters of the state’s population. No one questioned or challenged Naveen, because there was no one to do so. The results of the panchayat elections suggest that may no longer be the case.

Politics is the art of looking for trouble and that is what precisely, BJP has begun experimenting in Odisha. Senior BJP leader and union minister for tribal affairs Jual Oram on Tuesday clearly hinted that several senior BJD leaders, including MPs and MLAs, have shown interest in switching their loyalty to BJP.

Naveen, a reluctant politician who jumped from New York high society into Odisha’s political minefield as his father Biju Patnaik’s successor, on Wednesday reacted saying, “I think he (Jual Oram) is indulging in wishful thinking.”

However, that the Odisha chief minister is rattled by the recent political development is evident from his attempt for image makeover of his political persona. Once reticent and almost aloof, Naveen has begun mixing with people and posing for photographs. He clearly realises that his popularity is on a decline for a host of reasons. Intra-party battles are fought in the open and Naveen is unable to do anything about it. Taking head on veteran party colleagues who did not toe his line seems to be a thing of past.

A master of realpolitik, Naveen in the past had crushed rebellion in the nick of time. He sidelined Bijoy Mohapatra, a former Minister and a founder-member of the party, during the Assembly elections in 2000. Dilip Ray was dropped unceremoniously from the Union Cabinet. Even in 2002, he managed to keep the party intact after six of its 10 Lok Sabha members broke away from the party and sought recognition as being the `real’ BJD parliamentary group.

As part of a strategy to reach masses, Naveen led Odisha government had started a variety of welfare schemes aimed at the poor and women. These schemes cover the entire lifespan of an individual. They start with Mamata, a programme for women whose loss of employment during pregnancy is compensated by the government and end with Harishchandra Sahayta.

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However, the latest move by the Modi led NDA government to ensure that the centre gets its due credit for some of these schemes financed by it has literally shaken the BJD led government. Particularly, the Modi government’s direction to the state government last week to inform the details about the expenditure from district mineral funds has virtually taken the wind out of it so much so that it cannot utilize these funds as per its plan keeping the 2019 Assembly poll in mind.

Moreover, 17 years of incumbency is without doubt a political liability and Naveen’s sincere efforts for image makeover of his political persona would hardly hold back the disenchanted cadres and voters. The real challenge before him is to diagnose the trouble spots correctly and applying the right remedies.

No doubt, Naveen has emerged as a shrewd politician. But politics hates a vacuum. If it isn’t filled with hope, someone will fill it with fear. One won’t be surprised that a mass exodus from the BJD will begin from April 14th onward during the crucial BJP national executive meeting scheduled to be held here. Naveen’s political caliber will be really on test how he manages to stem the rot and keep his beleaguered party intact.