By Dr Prashanta Chandra Panda : The Greece crisis seems to be an interesting case study for economist and policy makers. For the last five years the events have been oscillating at its pace and symptoms being kept away from public scrutiny by interventions and promises from strong and comfortable neighborhood partner economies. Well at the time of joining in Euro-currency union, Greece seems to have qualified on the strength of its parameters on hold over deficits and price rise.
Public enthuse on likely benefits from a strong economy both financial, economic, industrial in terms of employment and income may have allowed citizens to compromise on sovereignty of policies for gradual streamlining into European stability and prosperity.
It is natural to think a weak economy may have cost advantages due to labour abundance as we assume skills travel and assimilate. Return in capital output ratio may increase in relation to the advanced economies. New Industrial enclosures may come up in the vicinity and purchasing power doubles along with tax potentials. In short as you become a part of a Union, a united force complements your attempts to grow and provide of employment. It is time to analyse how Greece has really benefitted from being a member. Or simply Greek superiority in labour and capital moved to destinations where it is offered bigger rewards in short time.
It is interesting to observe possibility of a likely varied type of self rule within monetary union emerging out. A 45-43 or 47-49 divide (with some undecided) cannot be termed as a regime of free and equal Greeks within the nation. With population over 40 and above is staying almost 50% above (roughly) the below 39 years, the promise to face austerity now to sow seeds of future growth with bigger allocation to capital seems remote possibility. Here compulsive economic forces deciding in favour of world expectations will be countered by political allocation of democracy. It may be observed that Greece also had adopted similar social and benevolent policies of other developed Europe.
Analysts who rates economy looking at the ratios be it Debt/GDP, fiscal surplus, Capital outlay, spending on subsidy or pension or income are moved by technical measures but hardly looks at the stress on current output or even contraction of output due to falling quality and decline of goods and services from government to its people. This affects cost, quality and standard of living of all sections of the populations.
And importantly a big morale let down for the promised or anticipated investments. Liberal and representative democracy can only respond by a hang in balance unity in phase-II of single currency adoption to proposed “circumstances of politics and policies”.
[Dr. Prashanta Chandra Panda is Professor of Economics in KIIT University, Bhubaneswar.]
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3 Comments on "Greece Crisis poses challenge to economists, policy makers"
When going gets good no one is bothered.The period before 2004 Olympics and thereafter easy money flowed with both the creditors and debtor looking the other way.For creditors it was the revenue they were generating from the capital employed and the debtor pushed by the easy money never gave attention to the structurals.Everything was normal.But as deficiencies crept up and started showing true colours these creditors started singing a different tune.As in many cases the truth lies in between.Both the parties to the crisis are equally to be blamed.
Good growth and easy liquidity both in donor and debt economies were possible only with financial engineering. These hardly reflects in structural observed by regulators. Both the parties escaped blames as it added to size.
Yes Sir, very well said. A phase where Growth was happening at both places be it creditor or debtor . But liquidity was abundant for the financial re-engineering obviously at the cost of structural. Enjoyed reading your comments.