By Vivekananda Pattanayak in Bhubaneswar, November 3, 2026: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA), now used mostly in the corporate world, originated from the US military in the eighties of the last century which described cold war situation.

If one looks back to the events of the world since the emergence of Trump, one will recognize the VUCA phenomena in the global affairs. When Covid was seen in the world he first told that China is doing a splendid job. When it entered US he was full of condemnation of China and WHO ending in exit from the world body.

The Ukrainian war began when Biden was in the White House. Ostensible reason for the hostilities was because Ukraine wanted to join NATO and be a member of EU. The West under US had global leadership since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Communist bloc and dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. Although Putin it is said had told Clinton then US President to join NATO, it is alleged the power behind the power known as deep state consisting of armament industry, big corporate investors, and demobilized military personnel frustrated this idea.

US led NATO condemned the “military operation” and made sabre rattling although unwilling to get drawn to the active war by putting foot soldiers on the ground realizing it would involve loss of lives and return of body bags. The Western middle class particularly the elders remember the Korean, Vietnam and recent war in Afghanistan which lasted for two decades resulting in disastrous defeat of the US led NATO. Strangely in spite of war, destruction and displacement of civilians and loss of lives, Ukraine is no where near joining NATO and the European Union.

Although the war has continued for three years the Russian army has not brought spectacular result as it had achieved in Chechnya and Georgia. Swift action by Putin brought Crimea under Russia. The Soviet Union like UK in the nineteenth century, had a taste of humiliating defeat in Afghanistan in the early nineties of the last century.

Incidentally, Pakistan masquerading as only Islamic nuclear power, has locked up Imran Khan, a democratically elected cricketer turned politician of Pathan origin who rose to become its Prime Minister, now struggling hard to subjugate Afghans whether Hazara, Tajiks, Uzbeks and even Pathans who constitute a substantial part of the country’s population. Readers need reminding that Durand Line dividing Afghanistan and Pakistan are an artificial line.

Afghans on either side are related through blood. Many of them enjoyed dual passports. Known in India as Kabuli Wallas before partition they were seen widely across the sub-continent. Those who have seen the movie Kabuli Walla of Rabindranath Tagore would recognize the Indian connection with Afghans.

One thing is getting realized by common people world over that big powers can be sure to meet ultimate loss of face as US and Israel in the recent hostilities in the Middle East. Both the nuclear powers are trying to destroy a country of Great Civilization which had produced Xeroxes, Cyrus, and Rustom.

The tiny population of Houthis of Shite origin hailing from mountains have given a tough time to oil rich and wealthy Saudi Arabia with all the military aid it received since the first Gulf War under thename DesertStorm.Even after signing military pact with Pakistan Saudi Arabia was unable to contain Houthis who control the Red Sea. The teeth shown by entering an alliance with Turkey and Pakistan do not seem to be giving any peace to MBS, the might behind the Saudi throne. News that the top echelon of these three countries went to Teheranto explore peace show how ambiguity is ruling the roost in this complex situation.

Iran is led by the Shite regime openly and sometime clandestinely siding with Shite Houthis supporting the Lebanese Shiites formerly led by Nasrullah (now dead) of Hezbollah. Turkey is a Sunni Islamic country after Erdogan’s ascendancy abjured its secular credential of the past created assiduously by Mustafa Kemal Pasha buttressed by Inonu, Gursel, Turkut Ozal, interestingly a Kurd and Demirel. Older generations remembered the great Ottoman Empire which included the Arabian Peninsula covering Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Palestine a part of which is called Israel, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Bahrein, and Yemen. The country is a member of the US created NATO since inception. Pakistan was a member of US sponsored CENTO and SEATO during Cold War.

Mercurial Trump leading US in his second term is unpredictable. His obsessive stance to make Canada the fifty-first State, preposterous pre-occupation to annex Greenland an autonomous region of indigenous people under Denmark, abduction of Maduro, the President of a sovereign country and member of the United Nations and his disdain towards UN and its agencies reflect his attitude towards international law and international institutions whose foundations were created by his great, distinguished predecessors like Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt.

His humiliating Zelensky in the full view of the global media while he was invited to the White House, reminded historians how Hitler had treated Nevile Chamberlain while settling the Sudeten German issue. Another example is how an inconsistent President of a so-called oldest democracy can be by buying diesel from Russia to maintain stability in the domestic market just before the election after imposing penal tariff on India for importing oil from Russia. This reflects how the expression VUCA can be used to describe global politics.

As an observer of events of since World War II one wonders how selfish interest to remain in power the Presidents and Prime Ministers do manipulation of global politics. Incidentally, Trump wanted Zelensky to expose Biden during the Presidential election on the ground his son was involved in some deal.

Equally true of the leadership in Isreal which wants to cling to power to avoid judicial verdict. Already indicted by domestic court he must remain in power to avoid the consequences. Justice Muralidharan has exposed genocide in Gaza. Navy Pilay getting Nobel Prize has been not unsurprisingly condemned by both Trump and Netanyahu while the European Union has openly and justly supported Nobel Committee.

NATO’s present and future role is uncertain with Trump’s hostility towards major European members. Their open refusal to join illegal US-Israel war, in particular to free the Gulf of Hormuz from the Iranian control although US has also imposed a blockade over blockade shows political division on the West. Starting war during negotiation and making missile strikes after signing ceasefire deal in Versailles is the height of uncertainty in the atmosphere of volatility, while dealing with complexity when diplomatic positions are ambiguous.