By Nageshwar Patnaik in Bhubaneswar, November 23, 2024: Even the most ardent supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could not have predicted the electoral outcome in Maharashtra. The complete rout of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance in Maharashtra has many messages entrenched in it. A second consecutive term for the BJP, accompanied by an even larger mandate-in terms of both seats and vote share-is truly historic and reaffirms the adage, ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’ (with Modi, it’s possible).

The Maharashtra Assembly election results will have repercussions way beyond the state. From Hindutva politics to reforms push, to alliance arithmetic, it will determine the course and discourse of national politics. The electoral battle was bipolar in Maharashtra as well as Jharkhand. In Maharashtra, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti alliance contested to retain power, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) aims to wrest control from the ruling alliance in the state. The Mahayuti comprises the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, JSS, RSVA, and RYSP. The MVA had the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP-SP and PWPI as constituents.

The electoral verdict clearly signals the defeat of the old ‘Political Elites’ — the traditional dynasties of Indian politics, the spectrum extending from national to state parties. Maharashtra voted with enthusiasm, registering a voter turnout not seen in three decades. This result, however, creates an existential crisis for the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) founded by Sharad Pawar.

The defeat of Shiv Sena (UBT) creates a new political model in India, where a family run party is successfully taken over by an outsider who prevails over the dynasts who run the parent party. This is the first time such an aberration has happened in the Indian politics. Can anyone imagine outsider taking over the party, supposedly from the Nehru-Gandhi family, the Yadav dynasties of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, or even the descendants of K Karunanidhi, the founder of Tamil Nadu’s ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam? It’s implausible but that is what has happened in Maharashtra now.

It is crystal clear that the mandate’s star is Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde who broke the Shiv Sena, besides the Modi Magic and anonymous RSS worker. He is a self-made individual who rose from being an auto rickshaw driver to chief minister of a state that sends the second largest contingent of MPs to Lok Sabha. He can now legitimately claim to be the real Shiv Sena. The electoral outcome in Maharashtra should stir up some apprehension in all the family-run parties across India, |Congress in particular.

At the national level, the |Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been badly exposed though Jharkhand is a saving grace for him but that’s also due to a regional party, the JMM, leading the way. The Congress’s decimation in Maharashtra also shows how it loses in direct fights with the BJP. The results of 76 seats in Maharashtra, where there was a head-on fight between the two, were most keenly watched. Of these, 36 were in Vidarbha, a region that has been swept by the BJP-led Mahayuti. The rise of the BJP and the slide of the Congress are visible in what the parties have done in straight fights, which reveal a party’s organisational strength and popularity. The Congress’s strike rate in direct contests with the BJP saw a huge jump from 8% in the 2019 Lok Sabha election to 30% in 2024.

This verdict also raises the fundamental riddle that the voters of Maharashtra have answered. Voters clearly have settled for the side that’s working earnestly for people. The campaign of Gaddar (traitor) pushed by the Uddhav Sena misfired badly as Shinde’s humble origins worked for him as did his accessibility and known capacity for hard work. Shinde’s master stroke was the direct cash transfers to over 2.5 crore women.

Considered as Chankya of Indian politics, Sharad Pawar, founder of the NCP, crashed in what he had said would be his last election. It’s not clear what direction he can move in to ensure the future of his daughter and MP Supriya Sule and other members of his family. His nephew Ajit Pawar who split the parent party, posted a far more convincing verdict t

han his dismal show in the Lok Sabha polls. There is talk of what remains of the party either being absorbed in the Congress or ceasing to exist if not absorbed by the Ajit Pawar faction.

The NCP is fundamentally a party of entrenched interests, so if those are protected, they can go anywhere. Finally, a word on the BJP that is always ready to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. What ruthlessness also achieves, when confronted by slow decision making on the part of the Opposition, is the people’s perception that perhaps the alternate does not even have the capacity to defeat those who are in power.

With a victory secured in Maharashtra, the BJP received a shot in the arm ahead of the Delhi Assembly polls next year, with its local leaders saying the party is now set to dethrone the AAP government in the national capital with a massive win. The BJP announced a “Parivartan Yatra” to end the 10 year-rule of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. Delhi BJP president Virendra Sachdeva said the Maharashtra election results were a stamp of public approval to the “Modi magic.”

What’s happened, therefore, is that in the crucial state of Maharashtra, the BJP and its allies have found their stride, while the Congress and its allies have lost their mojo. Jharkhand is a saving grace for the Congress, but that’s also due to a regional party, the JMM, leading the way.