By Vivekananda Pattanayak in Bhubaneswar, August 18, 2024: When the head of the government of a tiny island country of the South Pacific region escaped to another country, whether big or small it would not make headlines in the international media.When a coupd’état took place in Ghana, President Nkrumah was invited to the neighboring Guinea and made honorary President.

It was big news in Africa, in the Commonwealth of Nations and also in the world as Nkrumah was a prominent leader of the Non-Alignment Movement. Idi Amin, the dictator of Uganda managed to escape to Saudi Arabia when he lost power. It was exciting news. When Musharraf staged a coup Nawaz Sharif was allowed to go to Saudi Arabia after a brief period it was surprising news. When Gotabaya, Rajapaksa abandoned the Presidency and went to Maldives and then to Singapore, it was a baffling news.

When Hasina landed in India after resigning it was unbelievable news. Not that similar thing hadnot taken place in the pastinvolving India. Dalai Lama had escaped from Tibet to India in 1959. The difference was he was the head of a half sovereign statemore known in the world as a spiritual leader and he wasalso incredibly young. The Chinese were definitely not pleased.

Some in Bangladesh could not have been happy when Hasina came to Hindon. She had been the head of the government for fifteen years, had an international image as secular, and democratic.

When in 1971 Bangladesh war took place, USA was an ally of Pakistan. China was in the process of mendingits fence with USA. Kissinger had already taken his maiden flight to China only from Pakistan to start back channel diplomacy. China and India had already fought the border war of 1962. The Indo-Pak 1965 war had also seen the graveyard of US Patton tanks and slaying of Sabre jets. US had sent the seventh fleet to the Bay of Bengal on the eve of the capitulation of the Pakistani armyin order to threaten the Indian armed forces. Taking ninety thousand POWs was indeed anearth-shaking event.

Such kind of event had not taken place since World War II. Undoubtedly power balance in the sub-continent tilted in favor of India much to the chagrin of Mao. China could only do saber-rattling. Such was the anger of Mao and humiliation of China who could not prevent dismemberment of a closeally, when Mao met Nixon, he urged him to teach Indira Gandhi a lesson.

By the way when the news came that the US fleet was in the Bay of Bengal the news also echoed that the Soviet fleet was close to Kuril Island. It was the height of the Cold War. The world was then experiencing a classical balance of power. It is pertinent to understand whatbalance of power is an important doctrine for the students of strategy. If one studies Thucydides and the Peloponnesian war of the Greek era one would comprehend the significanceof balance of power dynamics. Similarly, the Napoleonic conquests in Europe and hissubsequent defeat by a coalition of states in Waterloo and his imprisonment in St Helena will throw light on how balance of power was upset and then restored in Europe.

When the Soviet Union and Communist bloc collapsed for a periodthe balanceof power in the world was disturbed.The unipolar world was visible.In the last the thirty years the global scenario has changed with meteoric rise of China as economic, military, and political power.

Crisis in Bangladesh begun with Hasina’s exit but what will be the future is unpredictable.In this context, it is worth going back to the year 1975 when Mujib was assassinated.It was a crisis and a big blow to India.Then China was not that powerful.Pakistan was still to recover from the ignoble defeat of 1971. India hadalready tested nuclear weapon. Bhutto was saying “even if we eat grass, we will produce nuclear bomb.” US was under a shock from the disastrous defeat in Vietnam.

Bangladesh experienced internal turmoil including coup of Zia Ur Rehman who was also assassinated after few years. Another military chief Ershad was disgraced after coming to lead the country. The country, after the judiciary’s brief interlude, had elections which brought tolerable normalcy. During Khaleda’s regime although the country was not overtlyfriendly towards India, it could not affect power balance.

After Hassina, the country being democratic, and secular followed pragmatic socio-economic policies which made Bangladeshan eye-catching developing country attracting foreign investments more particularly it got investment of those companies whowanted an alternative to China because of cheaper wage structure in the country.Hasina persistently remained secular and friendly to regimes in India.

Trauma of Hasina’s exit for the time-being wouldbe comparable to the post 1975 period when Mujib went off the scene in a tragic way. Much, however, depends upon how events unfoldand who would take control of government.The octogenarian Yunus would provide a transitory arrangement with military in the background and students not easily yielding influence.

If the elections do take place, provided it is fair under a politically neutral body, it is difficult to predict whether the new regime will tilt towards India, China, US or the Islamic world. Apart from Iran and Saudi Arabia, Turkey under Erdogan will perhaps be a candidate claiming proximity if a non-secular regime emerges.

Most certainly US would like to have a foothold in the country which China would not like. Interim transition is crucial for the stability of the future. The lobbying of interested parties will become vigorous. Absence of Hasina a secular leader will be felt in India. What is happening in the Middle East is not escaping the minds of young Bangladesh is in the era of the internet. This may have an impact on the newly emerging administration on its tilt towards the USA if it has that proclivity.

China and Russia have their position vis-à-vis the Middle East in particular Saudi Arabia and Iran. Everyday, the region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to hostile acts. The armed forces of Bangladesh have received weapons, arms, defense equipment and technology from China, Russia, and Spain. The military also cannot cut its ties with suppliers of arms. The Arab world is aware of oil as its weapon.India’s dependence on oil from the Middle East would continue for the near future. Russia has been another source after pernicious US sanction which has not pleased the present US administration.

In the event of a long-drawn conflict with Pakistan how assured India would be in oil supply from the Arab world should be a cause of concern with an unfriendly Bangladesh, hostile Pakistan, and aggressive China.