By Vivek Pattanayak in Bhubaneswar, August 6, 2024: After the disintegration of the Soviet Union and also the Communist bloc in Europe, and their consequential impact on the power structure in the world, economic, political and military, the United States distinctly emerged as the sole superpower sending tides of economic and political liberalism heralding globalization far and wide propelled by internet, the newly harnessed technology.

The President of the United States enjoyed such massive vast authority, influence and power, practically in every part of the world, the Brazilian Air Force General Renato Costa Pereira, then the Secretary General of the Specialized Agency of the United Nations looking after international air transport privately stated that in the Presidential election of the United States, “the citizens of all countries should be entitled to cast their votes as it affects the lives of all”.

In the last three decades there has been sea change in the global power scenario.

Putin, who once spent time on the Texas ranch of Bush, the Junior became so close to him that Bushfamously said, “I do not mind sharing foxhole with him.”Nobody could conceive of this type of banter in the heyday of Cold War. It may be recalled that when the Warsaw pact,once known as the fearsome military alliance of the Eastern socialist Bloc simply dissipated,the newly emerged President of Russia, young Vladimir Putin after Yeltsin offered to become a part of NATO which it is said had the support of Bill Clinton until sabotaged by the American “deep state”.

Putin today is a powerful global political force having revived the Russian nationalism and demonstrated his prowess by dismembering Georgia, creating Abkhazia and South Ossetia making the mighty US and Western allies feel helpless spectators and followed by annexing Crimea with ease demonstrating how powerless NATO is. China is different from what it was before the turn of the last century presently competing with US for global leadership.

Ukraine war having dragged on for more than two years anddeadly Israeli – Palestinian conflict escalating to most of the Middle East thepower dynamics of the world hasbecome complex not easily predictable.

After this narration and explanation, given as a prelude, the globe is now poised to witness how the contest for the US presidency would unfold particularly after Biden decided to drop out although belatedly nominating Kamala Harris as his successor as the Presidential candidate who has, meanwhile, been endorsed by the Democratic Party.

The American presidential contest although looks like a direct election is in fact based on the electoral college under the American constitutional system which in turn draws its legitimacy from the constitutions of the Stateswhich are as archaic as 17th century. No wonder a candidate getting less popular votes can get elected as it happened during the election of Trump defeating Hilary Clinton and also when Bush got elected defeating Al Gore in the recent times.

Kamala Harris, the present Vice-President, a person of the Indian origin is the second female candidate in the history of the United States. This can be seen as a burden on the grounds of race and gender although being the incumbent Vice-President like Richard Nixon and Al Gore have direct experience of White House being a part of Presidential decision-making elite.In addition,she also presides over the Senate.

The Indian Diaspora has expanded considerably in the last half a century.It has necessary political heft and financial strength having acquired prestige and respect due to their spectacular attainments in the domain of science, technology, and space with names of Sunder Pichai of Google , Sunita Williams now in the Space Station, Satya Nadella, Microsoft chief and Ajay Banga the World Bank chief and charismatic economist, Raghuram Rajan who had famously predicted financial meltdown.

The new ultra conservative wave at the same time has made news. There is an alliance of ultra-right forces in the world which have taken roots in the diaspora on which Kamala Harris would depend.The question is raised by Trump whether she is Indian or Black. The observation is not innocent.It is intended to drive a wedge among the non-white voters.In spite of legacy left by Abraham Lincon,the US electorate is racially influencedwith most outstanding exception being Obama’s spectacular election.

At the same time the incumbent President Biden, former President Clinton, both coming from the white community would firmly cast their weight behind Kamala Harris. Trump’s candidature is expected to get support of hardcore White supremacists and ultra-conservatives who were backers of the 6th of January Capitol Hill ignominious attack.

If Trump wins Israel would get a shot in arm as he as the US President formally recognized Jerusalem as the official capital of the Jewish State and moved US embassy from Tel Aviv. He had pioneered the Abraham Accord bringing Saudi Arabia andUAE closer to Israel, burying the Palestinian cause. At the same time huge US electorate includes many immigrants from the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa who have religious affinity with Palestinians whether Muslims or Christians who would gravitate around Kamala Harris.

Due to the construction of wall between Mexico and US by Trump preventing flow of Latin immigrants entering America,most of the recent Latindiaspora havesome grouse against Trump.‘Blackman life matters’ movement started after gruesome act of a white police officer killing a Black manduring the Trump regime has alienated the Black community from Trump.

In the election against Hilary Clinton as many Black voters simply did not turn up to cast vote she lost in key States. In the past an attempt has been made to prevent Black voters from exercising their franchise as was in the case of Bush Jr versus Al Gore in Florida. The attempt has been going on to disenfranchise Black voters by the State legislatures and administration under the control of Republican.

The beleaguered Zelensky may be leftalone if Trump wins as neither Trump nor hardcore Republicans are behind Ukraine. NATO, a divided house, is also held in low esteem by Trump as their meagre contributions to the budget had angered him.Trump’s win may be disastrous for Ukraine, a devastated nation.

China during Trump’s presidency had mixed relationship starting not so frosty but with tariff war and campaign against Huawei more so after spread of pandemic to US relationship sharply plummeted. The North Korean leader Kim may be happy with Trump in White House as during his tenure he had two but unsuccessful meetingstowards a rapprochement. Trump in the past had demanded sharing of the cost of keeping American military in South Korea and Japan.

Kamal Harris in the presidency would maintain the Biden foreign policy. Russia under Putin will continue receive heat from US inspite of recent exchange of prisoners.

Will ‘America be great’again?