Prof Satya Narayan Misra in Bhubaneswar, February 25, 2022: George Orwell wrote the allegorical novel Animal Farm in 1945 which is a scathing indictment of promised utopia in a communist regime. The tagline: ‘All animals are Equal, but some are more equal than others’ is possibly the wittiest epithet of how a few elites dominate the hoi polio in a communist country.

However, in terms of intellectual sweep his last novel 1984 takes the cake, as it underscores the consequences of totalitarian regime & its dystopic effect. He had in his mind Stalin’s Russia and Nazi Germany. And how truth and facts get manipulated in such repressive regime and dissent decimated. His crystal gazing of 1984 seems to have struck roots 38 years later in the icy cold terrain of Ukraine, where Putin is trying to capture two provinces in the east, Donetsk and Lugansk by muscling in its military might.

The best-selling book “The 48 Law of Power” by Robert Greene in Law 17 encourages reader to ‘keep others in suspended terror’. It’s a thuggish lesson which Mr Putin seems to have learnt from his KGB days and giving full display of it in Ukraine after gobbling up Crimea in 2014.

The West led by the USA sees Moscow’s war as a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and international law, while Russia justifies its position as safeguarding security of ethnic Russians living in these two provinces. Sadly, the talks between Russia, Ukraine and OSCE in 2014 at Minsk for a ceasefire and autonomy for the two republics failed. The subsequent talks in 2019 have also failed because the West does not agree to the legal guarantee of security which Russia wants.

The Russian President has repeatedly said that Russia will protect ethnic Russians. The anxiety of ethnic minorities has increased after the coup in Ukraine in 2014. Under the Presidency of Zelensky, laws were passed making Ukrainian the only official language. The civil strife from the separatist increased thereafter and thousands of Russian minorities were evacuated to Russia.

The proposal for Ukraine to join NATO has added fuel to the existing Ukrainian fire as NATO members would give Ukraine additional muscle to forcefully regain the autonomous regions of Lugansk and Donbas. NATO has continuously expanded to include 13 former Central East European countries. Once Ukraine joins NATO, its missiles will reach Moscow in five minutes. Ukraine is the buffer and bridge between Russia & Europe. All attacks on Russia, earlier from Napoleon to Hitler, came through Ukraine; just as Russia’s route to Europe for oil pipelines is through Ukraine.

After the 9/11 World Trade Centre attack 2001 Russia has been supportive of US concerns. However, the US President Joe Biden has rejected any commitment for Russian security from the Nato. This standoff with Russia provides Mr Biden with several opportunities. The dominant narrative is that Ukraine is the sovereign nation that has right to join NATO. Russian positions and its sending its army will lead to heavy sanctions that could hurt and isolate Russia. Russia has provided Mr Biden the opportunity to bring a fringe European alliance back behind America in face of major threat. France and Germany have been taking comparatively autonomous steps from NATO but have been forced back to accept US leadership and control in Europe.

For Ukraine this is the worse inflicted crisis as it is completely dependent on Russia for oil. It is a country which is deeply polarized between pro-Russian and anti-Russian politics. Russian minority has been fishing in troubled Ukrainian waters. Incidentally Europe is a divided house as Russia has been providing cheapest source of gas to many countries. Germany has a gas pipeline with Russia. So is a multi-billion project for a gas pipeline between Russia and China, nearing completion.Ukraine is also a major partner with China for the Belt Road Initiative (BRI).

Therefore, it is not surprising that China is doing a trapeze act and asking for de-escalation only. India also has been playing a cautious approach, given the evolving geo-political landscape with attendant uncertainties. India has also a strategic partnership with Russia, which stood by India in UNO during war with Pakistan. It is too early to say what Putin’s and endgame is and how costly this adventure will be in terms of life and destruction. Without justifying the manner in which Russia has chosen to Right the perceived wrongs this crisis results from a broken security architecture in Europe.

Jean Monet the famous diplomat of France after the Second World War had mooted the concept of partnership between European countries. The European coal and steel commission between France and Germany who were arch rivals became partners to benefit from economic prosperity. This proved the hypothesis that in international relations “there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies just permanent interests”.

That leitmotif of European brotherhood has now given way to fission, friction and diplomatic vacillation amongst the European nations. The Ukrainian crisis can be seen through the prism of standard international relation theories. The realist theory of Machiavelli suggested that military power is the key to enforce peace. It was predicated on the presumption that self-interest of each country is the most important driver.

However, in the 1970s another theory namely Liberal Institutionalism was coined which highlighted the importance of institutions like the UNO, IMF and non-state actors and MNCs. The emphasis was dialogue and deliberation. Sadly, the liberal institutionalism theory has become redundant as the role of UNO has been substantially emasculated. A case in point was US invasion of Iraq without UN sanction. The realistic theory of Metternich has sadly become the driving force in international relations.

The Ukrainian crisis is therefore to be viewed as multiple crisis and reveals the importance of inclusive citizenship and accommodating ethnic and other minorities and their rights. It is therefore important that the USA instead of riding the high moral horse must start dialogues with Russia along with other European countries so that the autonomy of the minority in the two provinces of Ukraine is not trampled upon. Economic Sanctions cannot be the end game and resurgence of cold war is not the answer.

Biden must look back on history about the pioneering role Roosevelt played during the World War II and be a statesman. Putin cannot be allowed to be a bully.