By Vivek Pattanayak in Bhubaneswar, February 24, 2025: When a domestic change in a regime takes place there can be a sea change in global politics. In the history of last one hundred years, one has seen how Hitler coming to power in Germany brought rapid changes in Europe and the world.

Collusion between Stalin and Hitler, one a Communist and other a Nazi brought division of Poland , usurpation of Baltic states by USSR and establishment of the Vichy regime in France. Then came all out global war. Churchill supported de Gaulle while the Americans did not trust him.

If one goes back to 1991, one could see how changes unfolded when Yeltsin took over Russia after the break-up of USSR. Overnight, the US leadership whether led by so-called “deep state” or otherwise suddenly found greatness in Yeltsin who a year before would have been considered almost as “untouchable” being a diehard Communist.

Gorbachev, who was being praised and propped up almost as a Messiah for Glasnost and Perestroika, was completely forgotten. India known for a half century of comradery with Soviet Union and its Communist allies was lost in the choppy waters of global diplomacy. Outlook of India towards Israel dramatically changed. In Europe there was uncertainty with regard to erstwhile communist countries of Eastern Europe. As the French Ambassador told, “We are not sure who is our friend and who is our enemy.”

In the height of Cold War, the US-China thaw which had begun since the historic meeting of Nixon and Mao took a turn towards closer economic and trade cooperation. US relieved of the half a century of Russophobia also waited whether the China’s Communist monolithic regime would crumble.

Philosophy of capitalism, liberalism, and privatization began spreading to countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. No wonder, the book “When Corporations Rule the World” of David Corten hit the headlines. Now after three decades a sudden and rattling change in the global political climate is seen in the world after the last Presidential election in the US.

As some describe it as cathartic. Canada known for decades as younger sibling of US is at loggerhead with its elder sibling.US considers its northern neighbor as a pariah state. Venom is being spilled between the two in open. During the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein, both France and Canada did not join “the coalition of willing”.

Such was the anger in US, the Americans called French Fries as Freedom Fries and cars carrying Canadian number plates were vandalized in US. Now threat of Tariff war has begun. There is a talk about water sanctions. Canada is undoubtedly a cornucopia of water. US incidentally depends quite substantially upon electricity from Canada in particular from Hydro-Quebec.

US and Europe are now on opposite sides. There is pervading gloom across Europe. Solidarity among the European nations was traditionally weak. If history is any dependable witness, it has seen centuries of internecine wars among the Europeans.

Russia till now a sworn enemy of the West is close to USA. Ukraine who received military aid in war against Russia from US has been abandoned by the new American dispensation.  It is being held responsible for starting the hostilities termed as “ridiculous war” which have continued for three years with heavy loss of lives, destruction of infrastructure and displacement of millions of denizens. Zelensky until recently a darling of US and West has been described as a dictator by new US leadership.

US, an ally of Europe for more than a century, is eyeing for Greenland, an autonomous region inhabited for more than millennia by the Indigenous people of Denmark.

The Panama Canal transferred back to Panama a half a century ago is being demanded for its return ostensibly on the ground that bulk of US cargo passes through this route . China’s presence there under Border Road Initiative (BRI) is simply unacceptable, a veritable anathema. So much to the glory of much advocated doctrine of “Rule Based Order.”

NATO’s future is under a big question mark. Will Europe have a separate military alliance? Britain, known for decades as a strong ally of the US, is in a quandary. People may recall how Tony Blair, British Prime Minister had a close embrace of US, then under Bush, the Junior, after 9/11 and played a key role in garnering NATO support on its attack on Taliban led Afghanistan.

Even he had gone all the way to support Bush in his invasion of Iraq on the ground that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction although IAEA inspectors found none, and even after fall of Saddam and occupation of Iraq by US and UK under the banner of “coalition of willing” nothing of that sort was found.

EU has been sceptic about Britain’s loyalty towards united Europe since Brexit. The idea of having a European military alliance given by Boris Johnson had received tepid support from the rest of Europe. Outlook of France towards NATO since the days of de Gaulle has been one of indifference. For an extended period, France abstained from its meetings. Everyone knows Macron described NATO as brain-dead.

Russia does not consider itself as a part of Europe and cannot reconcile to the idea of an independent Ukraine. In any case two Oblasts in Ukraine, now practically under Russia’s military control, are Russian speaking territory. One should take note that Belarus has remained close to Russia since Soviet Union broke up. Heavy presence of Russia in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan, because of space stations have not waned since the break-up of the Soviet Union. Will the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a group formed among the independent countries formed out of former Republics of erstwhile USSR will come alive as a coordinating body.

US desires to establish sovereign wealth fund to rival China on BRI . When its its national debt is of the order of trillions of dollars, how will it be accomplished is a puzzle. China and Japan hold bulk of US Treasury bonds.
In spite of Munroe doctrine, Latin America does not have popular support for Gringos. Now with massive deportation in disgraceful and undignified manner Latins are livid with anger. Colombia has already shown its fang. Cuba having been punished since Castro came to power in 1959 cannot accept US hegemony. Venezuela under Maduro is no friend of US.

In spite of Trifecta and Republican dominance in the apex court, the lower judiciary has shown its independence. Right to US citizenship by birth, based on age-old principle of jus soli and jus sanguinis supported by constitutional provisions, although cancelled by executive order has been stayed by courts.

In spite of FOX news, media in USA continues to make blistering criticism of acts of deportation violating human rights. Rating of Trump now has been lower than Biden during the same period after being sworn in.Too much power in one person is detrimental to the nation, society, and the world. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely said Lord Acton. One can see this phenomenon in many so-called constitutional democracies.

Where wealth accumulates men decay. Goldsmith’s words are still ringing in the ears of thinking people. Wealth is playing a crucial role in the working of states either during elections as was the case in the recent election in US or otherwise in many established constitutional democracies.

Tariff war brings inflation. Mass firing of staff will create unemployment. More particularly if done in FAA air transport safety will be compromised after spate of aviation related accidents.

Gaza will remain the Achilles Heel. Arabs across the world are watching. If 1948,1967 and 1973 could not subjugate Palestinians , will 2025 be a watershed? One should not forget 9/11. The main reason was Palestine. After twenty years of war Taliban is back in Afghanistan.

The biggest challenge to humanity is climate change. As we are arguing and negotiating the world is becoming hotter and hotter. The principal polluter of the environment since the industrial age has been the US led West. At least Europe, Canada, Japan, and Australia have recognized this. With the US having abandoned the Paris Accord the climate fund will remain a dream with Europe in disarray.

To make Mars habitable by 2050 and start human civilization is a pipe dream. Let Sunita William and her colleague be brought down to earth first. By capturing headlines, planting loyal panels on TV shows and manipulating social media one cannot achieve results on the ground.

To quote Abraham Lincoln, “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time”.