By Vivek Pattanayak in Bhubaneswar, February 1, 2025: History of the world since the Greek, Roman and even Babylonian timeshas witnessed array of big powers versus not-so-big powers. Hence the doctrine of Thucydides has a place in the geopolitics. Big power can be identified based on political, economic, and military strength. When we talk of political power it means the level of political stability a country has maintained over a certain period of time and what influence it wields over other countries.

Without military strength, political prowess becomes insufficient and inchoate. Military strength in the current era includes the size of the army, navy and air force, nuclear weapons, military arsenal, missiles, advanced scientific technology, and electronic infrastructure etc. Economic strength will be known by GDP, rate of growth, per capita income, foreign exchange reserves, health of financial institutions like Banks, insurance companies and stock market, trade surplus and the extent of share holding it enjoys in international and regional financial institutions like World Bank, IMF, and other regional institutions like ADB etc.

Taking into account what was just been stated, one easilycan identify USA, Russia, and China as big powers. Some countries like Japan and Germany and to some extent Britain and France enjoy political and economic strength but by themselves they do not have military muscleto influence a region except France although it is increasingly under challenge.

There are groupings of countries known as G 7, G 20, BRICS, SCO, Arab League, OAS, Organization of African Unity and EU who influence international developments but they are not unified state powers by themselves. NATO is basically a military alliance not a state by itself although it gives strength to US, UK, France and Germany in Europe.

The emerging countries like India, Brazil and South Africa fall short of three big powers already identified although they have potentialities of becoming bigpowersin future by virtue of their geographic size, population, and resources, more particularly growing skills among the young. It is, however, exceedingly difficult to accurately predict when they will reach that status and how.

As far as India is concerned by purchasing power parity (PPP) its economy has acquired the status of the third largest economy since March 2014, next only to USA and China. There was recent euphoria that its GDPhad exceeded the UK, the erstwhile imperial power.The reality that Britian’s per capita income far exceeds that of India must not be obfuscated in the knowledge domain. Although India has made growth consistently, but its growth is calculated based on the revised method adopted since 2014.

In recent times its current account deficit and trade gaps have been restrainingits propensityto be a strong economic powerhouse with constant struggle to increase exports. Further,it isalso saddled by the burden of imports due to ever increasing dependence on fossil fuel.In this context it may be relevant to point out the Chinese trade surplus has reached one trillion-dollar mark. In the recent times decline in foreign exchange reserve in India is disconcerting. The exchange rates between the dollar and the rupeeis its Achilles heel, compounded by increasing public debt. Private investment both domestic and foreign in spite of Make in India and high-profile campaign has not contributed significantly to the manufacturing base.Target to take it to 25% of GDP remains elusive and it is stillmarking time around 16%for more than a decade.

Depending upon the interest rate fixed by Federal Reserves the fluctuation is reflected in the stock market.When Federal Reserve increases interest rate Foreign Institutional Investmentsebb out of the Indian stock market.Volatile index (VIX factor) determines stock index. Peculiarly, contrary to the popular impression that the economyis doing well when stock market is bubbling, it must be understood that during the pandemic when economy was contracting stock market was still bullish.

Elevated levels of inequality in the country constitute social burden accentuated by unemployment, mostly among the educated youth with the potential of creating instability in society. The so-called demographic dividend may also be the cause of future demographic discomfort and discontent.

In this background, India is also confronted by hostile neighbors in the north and west. Further, relationship with Bangladesh has plummeted, with Nepal and Maldives entente is tepid and with Sri Lanka although it is currently steady, future is unpredictable with its proximity towards China due to its financial compulsions.

India’s close relationship with Russia, a major power has remained stable for a prolonged period of time,even going back to the days of the Soviet Union. Nehru played an important role in developing this robust relationship by getting its supportfor building steel plants, heavy engineering and manufacturing units,military industry and, machine tools etc. However, during the conflict with China in 1962, the Soviet Union caught up in the Cuban missile crisis made a differentiation between a friend and a brother.While China was considered a brother India was a friend.

This differentiation was on account ofideologicalreasons.While China and Soviet Union were both Communist countries and India was a constitutional democracy although the communist world had noticed that Kerala had an elected communist government under EMS Nambodooripad. Nevertheless, the Soviet Union appreciated the non-alignment position of India, (now generally referred to as “strategic autonomy”) while USA under the muscular diplomacy of John Foster Dulles postulated the doctrine “either you are with us or against us.”

Interestingly, when China invaded India, Nehru sought the support of USA.Coincidentally, India made some concessions like revision of air services agreement to be in linewith US policyof Bermuda liberal sky.Incidentally, attempttowards easing of tension between India and Pakistan was made possibly at the gentle nudge ofUS. Duncan Sandys of Britain made many rounds between Pakistan and Indiaostensibly to find a solution over Jammu Kashmir.

When the war broke out between India and Pakistan in 1965, USA supported Pakistan, a member of CENTO and SEATO. In the battlefield on the ground one saw US built Patton tanks. In the air battle, the US Sabre jets were seen over the Indian sky. The Soviet-aided Hindustan Aeronautical Limited gave fitting answers through Gnats which slayed Sabre jets. In the ground one saw the graveyard of Patton tanks. In 1971 in spite of the American support to Pakistan including dispatch of the Seventh fleet to the Bay of Bengal, India under Indira Gandhi “cut Pakistan to size” with emergence of independent Bangladesh. China’s Mao deeply disturbed by this geopolitical quake pleaded with Nixon during his maiden visit to Beijing “to teach India a lesson”. Brezhnev of Soviet Union lent full support to India.

In the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia notwithstanding US sanction Indiasteadfastly imported cheap oil from Russia much to the chagrin of US.

Presently however, Falsetto projection, of India’s association with QUAD must be moderated by reality. Russia’s adverse position if the Group goes anything beyond a diplomatic talking shop should not be ignored. Needless to say, that China would have its discomfiture if QUAD were called the Asian NATO in spite of steps towards detente. More than anything Group of Five Eyes consisting of the Anglo-Saxon solidarity will elbow out India in the most needed time as was demonstrated during the recent India-Canada spat. Blood is thicker than water.