By Nageshwar Patnaik in Bhubaneswar, November 12, 2024: Recent times have witnessed quite a few elections whose outcomes are widely considered as surprises across the globe. Elections involving a very large voter population often lead to outcomes that surprise many. As the battle of ballots for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assemblies intensifies, predicting the outcome is a real challenge for the pollsters. Will the outcome once again surprise one and all?

While Maharashtra will vote on November 20, Jharkhand will see two-phase polling on November 13 and 20. The results for both the states will be out on November 23. After winning the Assembly polls in Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh and riding on the back of its impressive show in Haryana, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has gone all out to end the year 2024 on a positive note. On the other hand, the opposition INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc hopes to erase the Haryana shocker and carry on their Lok Sabha gains.

Going by the electoral pitch, it is clear the battle for 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly appears to be one of the keenest and toughest ones in recent years. There is a lot at stake for both the ruling Mahayuti and opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). People in Maharashtra have witnessed high political drama. The BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena had contested the 2019 assembly election as allies and had won a decisive mandate. The BJP had won 105 seats and the Shiv Sena 56. However, fight over the chief minister’s post saw Uddhav Thackeray quit the NDA and join hands with NCP and Congress to form the MVA, which ultimately formed the government under Uddhav’s leadership.

In June 2022, Eknath Shinde led a rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray and walked out of the party with most of the MLAs. He joined hands with the BJP to become the chief minister of Maharashtra and in due course got recognition as the original Shiv Sena. A year later, Sharad Pawar’s NCP met with the same fate with his nephew Ajit Pawar leading the rebellion. The NCP also split ultimately and Ajit Pawar joined the ruling Mahayuti as deputy chief minister.

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections was the first electoral contest in the state after the altered power equations in the state. And the verdict was decisively in favour of the MVA which won 30 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Going by the Lok Sabha results, the MVA seems to be confident of defeating the Mahayuti again in the assembly elections. However, Lok Sabha success is no guarantee of victory in state elections going by the Haryana elections outcome. Hence, the Eknath Shinde government has taken a leaf out of Nayab Singh Saini’s success story template and has gone on an overdrive to woo all sections ahead of the assembly elections.

The MVA will also take a cue from the Haryana mandate – including the consequences of division of votes against the BJP. Confident after their Lok Sabha success, the three MVA allies have been struggling to arrive at a seat-sharing deal – with each party trying not to concede too much of space. In fact, the Maharashtra results will be important for the future of not just MVA but also the INDIA bloc, which has struggled to stay intact.

As the parties gear up for the mandate, both the national and regional issues are in focus as campaigning enters into a crucial phase for the Maharashtra poll. Personality clashes and the sectional interests of leaders and outfits are also at play in the State. Key political figures are trying to make sense of the new landscape and shape it to their advantage, as was evident at The Hindu’s conclave in Mumbai that brought them all together.

Contrastingly, in Jharkhand, the BJP-led NDA, which has been in the opposition for the last five years, will challenge with a confident Hemant Soren-led opposition alliance. The BJP has four former chief ministers in its ranks, though the party’s campaign in the state is being spearheaded by Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Union minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. They have gone hammer and tongs on the issue of Bangladeshi infiltrators threatening the existence of tribals in the state and their promise of implementing the NRC.

Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren, on the other hand, has played his cards well till now. He has managed to return as chief minister after having to quit the post for a short jail term after the Enforcement Directorate (ED) arrested him in an alleged money laundering case related to land scam. However, Soren has managed to use the case and the jail term to play the victim card and accuse the BJP of targeting him because he is a tribal.

In the last assembly elections, the BJP lost despite leading a government in the state for five years. While the BJP could win only 25 seats, the JMM emerged as the single largest party with 30 assembly seats and went on to form the government with the help of its allies including the Congress. The JMM-led INDIA bloc made some gains in the Lok Sabha elections as well winning 5 out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats. It will hope to consolidate these gains further and return to power in the state.

The results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections will decide which of the two alliances take the pole position as they brace for the 2025 electoral battles starting from Delhi. A win for the BJP will further consolidate its Haryana gains while a win for the INDIA alliance will help the opposition bloc emerge from its Haryana shock.