By Nageshwar Patnaik in Bhubaneswar, May 27, 2024: “If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything, deliver nothing”. This saying by Napoleon Bonaparte is clearly applicable to our present day Netas, who make promises knowing very well that they just can’t deliver. It is truism to say that across the world, the people who find it hardest to sell trust are politicians. Politicians in our country sell trust by insisting that the promises they make will be the first decision of their cabinet, as soon as they come into power. Some give deadlines and dates. However, none of this seems to have any guaranteed impact on winning over trust.

All political party manifestos promise voters the moon, as they vie to present their vision for the nation’s future. This year’s general election is witnessing a state of competitive welfarism, which has ramifications for the nature of electoral politics in the country as well as in the nature of capital being channeled and promoted through politics. Question is, if all these parties promising jobs, cash transfers and free electricity, how does the voter decide whom to trust?

These impractical poll promises follows freebies announced in the recent state assembly elections where parties announced free bus rides for women and bringing the old pension schemes for government employees among others. Politicians appear to have no choice but to sell dreams and promise welfare benefits to alleviate the economic stress on families. How does the Indian voter decide who to trust?

While the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition parties trade verbal war over their promises and past performances, it is important to critically examine the proposals from an economic perspective. One classic example is a flurry of promises by parties to women. The most talked about flagship promises is the Mahalakshmi scheme, under which the Congress party is offering an annual cash transfer of Rs 1 lakh to one woman per below-the-poverty-line household. The grand old party promises to transfer Rs 8,500 per month transfer if voted to power. It has also promised a legal guarantee for Minimum Support Prices to farmers among others.

In a post on ‘X’, the BJP initially promised the cash vouchers of Rs 50,000 under Subhadra Scheme to all eligible women across the country; but later it was deleted for obvious reasons. It would have required a whopping Rs 30 lakh crore to implement the scheme. However, the BJP has clarified that it would be implemented for women in Odisha in the next two years if voted to power. The cash outgo is roughly pegged at Rs one lakh crore. Understandably, this initiative is aimed at wooing female voters in the ongoing Odisha Assembly elections as well as the Lok Sabha Sabha elections.

The Congress is also not far behind it as it has promised 33 per cent reservation in central and state government jobs in the Odisha Assembly poll manifesto. Other promises include free education at all levels and financial assistance to needy families for a daughter’s marriage, higher pay for all Anganwadi workers, and a Rs 2,000 monthly pension to widows and single women above the age of 60 years. This apart, under the Mahalakshmi scheme, the Congress will dole out an annual cash transfer of Rs 1 lakh to one woman per below-the-poverty-line household.

There is a long list of freebies and sops announced by both the incumbent, BJP and other parties. These promises are over welfare and subsidy schemes, including the continuation of free food grain scheme launched during the pandemic by the central government. The state governments have their own sops, further swelling the subsidy bill of the country. In the last fiscal, the central government’s bill for major subsidies was Rs 4.14 lakh crore or 1.4 percent of the GDP.

Several economists have pointed out that the subsidy burden of various party manifesto promises, if implemented, could run into several lakh crore. The fiscal deficit, which had come down to 4.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), may shoot up sharply. The other significant issue is that there are no detailed funding plans in the manifestos. While the intent of the Parties may be laudable, their manifestos lack specifics on the financial implications and the number of beneficiaries. There must be proper scrutiny over the financial sustainability of such ambitious welfare programs keeping the union budget into view.

Incidentally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself had complained about “freebies”. “Today in our country, attempts are being made to collect votes by distributing free revdis (sweets). This revdi culture is very dangerous for the development of the country……… People of revdi culture will not build expressways, airports or defence corridors for you. People of revdi culture feel that by distributing free revdis to people, they can buy them. Together we need to defeat this thinking. Revdi culture needs to be removed from the country’s politics.”

Besides, the Supreme Court and the Election Commission of India also had expressed their serious concern about “freebies”. The new government will have to resort to heavy borrowing, which would then crowd in the credit market and send interest rates rising, at a time when the industry needs lower rates in the current growth phase of the economy.
Such welfare schemes may also put brakes on the ongoing stress on infrastructure and capital expenditure by the government. It would also lead to the rise in the debt levels which are already at 81 percent of GDP.

Parties have failed miserably to sell trust by making tangible and finite promises. Whichever party or alliance comes to power, it will fail to deliver what it has promised prior to the battle of ballots.