By Nageshwar Patnaik in Bhubaneswar, March 11, 2017 : A resounding win by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh will be closely watched by Odisha chief minister and the BJD chief, Naveen Patnaik as it could be a rehearsal for the 2019 general election in the state for both the Assembly and Lok Sabha.

The BJP has crossed the 300-seat mark in Uttar Pradesh – a thumping 3/4th majority in the state assembly, which is the largest ever win for the party in the state.

The verdict will certainly shake regional satraps like Naveen with the fate of UP satraps Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati sealed at the hustings. One may not find it difficult to attribute BJP’s historic
success. Some pundits attribute Modi Wave and others to Anti-incumbency factor for BJP’ landslide victory in a politically crucial state like UP.

Both the factors pose silent threats to Naveen, though no one can dispute his hold over the state as of now. His party won four successive polls since 2000 and the first two terms – 2000-2009, BJP was BJD’s ally. He also proved everybody wrong by making light of poll pundits’ concern over anti-incumbency by improving the party’s seat tally and vote share in 2009 and 2014 general elections. Modi wave also did not work in Odisha in the last general election.

Seats won  by parties from Odisha in Lok Sabha polls 

But anything can happen in politics. “In both UP and Uttarkhand, anti-incumbency factor coupled with Modi’s popularity brought huge success to BJP. Modi’s demonetisation move did not have any adverse impact on the party’s electoral success. Modi’s speeches with human touch rekindled hopes in common man of a bright future ahead. Certainly, Modi wave poses threats to regional satraps”, says, Dr Sudhanshu Pattnaik, former professor of Political Science, Utkal University.

There is a slight hint of Modi wave slowly swirling across the state if the last polls for panchayat bodies and zilla parishad are any indication. Modi’s party has been able to dislodge the Congress from the second position, with the latter winning a measly 60 seats, less than half its total in 2012.

The ruling BJD’s tally also dropped by a quarter from 2012. Naveen himself admitted that in some of the 30 districts the party had not performed as well as expected and a course correction is needed.

“They (the people) have given us a golden opportunity for serious introspection… We shall review our performance very seriously and shall apply suitable correctives both in terms of government and on organisational issues,” Naveen said.

With the BJP’s footprint spreading across the country, the Congress is getting virtually marginalised. The Rahul Gandhi-led party has resorted to taking support from the regional parties. The party joined hands with Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, and Janata Dal and Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar.

Sometime back, BJD leader in Lok Sabha Bhartuhari Mahatab hinted at possible alliance with the Congress party if need arises. The talk of unified Janata Dal is also getting momentum and Naveen is lured to take the lead so that in alliance with Congress, they can checkmate Modi wave sweeping the country the 2019 polls.

At the same time, one cannot rule out political observers take cue from the fact that top BJP leaders maintain friendly relations with Patnaik despite the latter party a tough opponent and say that the changing political scenario could force Naveen to consider joining hands with the BJP in the state after the election, if the need arises. After all, the BJP had more success electorally in the state and was even a junior partner in the government for nine years.

For Naveen, it is a tough task to decide to go alone or align with one of the opposition parties, BJP or Congress to register record five time victory in the next polls.