By Nageshwar Patnaik in Bhubaneswar, December 22, 2016 : The Narendra Modi government at the centre and the Naveen Patnaik government in Odisha have created hype of being farmer friendly. Both the governments promise doubling the farmer’s income in next five years.

Through such promises, Prime Minister Modi hopes to shore up support among 263 million farmers who will have a major say in his party’s fate in upcoming state elections and parliamentary polls in 2019. Similarly, Odisha chief minister hopes to garner support of 58% of the rural households, who are basically agricultural households ahead of Panhyat polls early next year and general election in 1919.

But the facts belie their promise of miracle of doubling of income of farmers. Experts have already described Modi’s farm promise far-fetched. Doubling of real incomes would be “a miracle of miracles” as it would imply a compound growth rate of 12 percent per annum, according to Ashok Gulati, former chairman of Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices and Professor, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations.

What is worse is the fact that after adjusting the rising costs, an Indian farmer’s income effectively rose 5 percent per year over the decade (2003-2013), according to an IndiaSpend analysis of various government data. This very fact makes it very clear that the government’s promise will descend into a pipe-dream.

Under Modi, the guaranteed price the government pays for common grades of rice has risen at an annual rate of 3.7%. That’s less than inflation and below half the 9% rate under the Congress government that preceded him.

Despite the declining trend of agriculture across the country, Naveen Patnaik recently claimed that Odisha is the only state in the country where the income of farmers has doubled from 2003 to 2013. The average monthly income, which was Rs 1,000 in 2003, increased to Rs 2,000 in 2013 according to the report of the national sample survey. Such increase in Farm House hold income has been much more in Odisha as compared to other states of India.

The agrarian sector in the state has been facing severe crisis for last couple of years with reports of rise in the numbers of farmers’ suicide.

First of all the agricultural year, 2002-03 was a severe drought year in Odisha state. As a result, the principal food crop of the state, rice which shares more than 40% of the farmers income, its loss as estimated by the Directorate of Economics and Statistics was more than 50% in 23 districts, more than 60% in 12 districts and more than 80% in three districts ( Nuapada, Bolangir and Angul). Even total production of rice which was 71.49 lakh tones in 2001-02 declined to 32.44 lakh tones during 2002-03 recording a decline of 54.62%.

The productivity of rice per hectare also came down by 52.23%. Employment in rice production system alone declined by more than 35%. The impact of drought also continued for rabi crops. Even live stock sector was severely affected, the income from live stock sector was only 4% of the total farm household income during 2002-03. This crisis led to suicide by 365 farmers in 2003.

A study by the Philippines based International Rice Research Institute on the impact of drought on farm economy of Odisha shows that the average rice output was reduced by 60% during 2002-03 in the state. The employment in rice production system drastically went down by 190 million person days. About 16% more people in drought affected areas entered into the poverty trap due to the decline in farm income following the drought that year.

“Since Odisha experienced a severe drought during the year, its average farm household income among samples collected from Odisha state was only Rs.1062.00. This level of income was found to Rs. 4976.00 during 2013, a best agriculturally productivity year for the state so far. After computing through consumer price index, the total income is found to be doubled during 2003 and 2013”, says Prof. Dibakar Naik, former Dean, College of Agriculture, Odisha Universtity of Agriculture and Technology [O.U.A.T].

Incidentally, 2012-13 was the best agriculture year in the last 15 years with productivity of the main crop, rice per hectare shot up by more than 60.39% over 2011-12. Even total rice production got was increased by 61.10% over the previous year.

“Keeping all these facts in view, the year 2003 cannot be considered statistically as base year to compare the rise in farm income with 2013 for Odisha state, since the year 2002-03 is severe drought year for the state of Odisha”, Naik argues saying that the Cabinet was kept in dark about all these facts.